| Example of a GOOD prediction entry: | Evaluation of the example: |
| Title:
2006 – Cars Will Be Able to Self-Diagnose Problems and Email You About It |
This title clearly states what the predictor speculates will occur. |
| Summary of the Prediction:
Cars are now being equipped with global communications packages (GCP), which includes cellular phone, fax, e-mail, web access, and television. The next step is to create a car that has its own self-diagnosing capabilities. With the GCP the car will be able to notify its owner of any problems if they are found during the self-diagnostic. |
The summary gives enough information so that others can understand the nature of the prediction. The significance of this prediction was not clearly spelled out, however. The impact of this prediction on the entire world if it came true was not indicated. |
| Potential impacts:
This could potentially lower maintenance costs of owning a car, because it will provide preventative maintenance instead of treating problems that have already occurred. This could cause services, such as AAA, that provide roadside assistance to become obsolete. There would be little to no need for roadside assistance, because the car would have already informed you of potential problems. |
The prediction appears to focus on the potential impacts to people living in the U.S. Indicate how this prediction could have a worldwide impact. If this prediction comes true, what will happen to the world? Are self-diagnosing cars important in parts of the world that rely heavily on mass transportation? Will this be important in non-industrialized countries? |
| Basis for the prediction: This is a publication put out by Ford Motor Co. so I would suspect that they would have the best idea of where the future of cars are headed. I would also guess this prediction is fairly accurate because of the great advances that are occurring in computer technology. It is already being incorporated into cars now, so there is no reason why it could not continue to go further. | The prediction clearly states that Ford Motor Co. is the source of the information, but does not indicate what methods they used to formulate the prediction. Consider the possibility that that the information from Ford could be biased, since their goal is to sell cars. How would such technology benefit Ford? Can you tell us anything concrete to give us confidence that this prediction is likely to occur? |
| Reference:
Sherlock, Joe. “Automotive Predictions For The Next 100 Years.” Continental Connector Newsletter Sept. 1999: 2-3. |
This is a complete citation. We would easily be able to locate this reference. The student did not, however, tell us what the author’s credentials are. |
| Mechanics:
Spell out abbreviations. This was done for “GCP,” but not for “AAA.” |
| Example of a POOR prediction entry: | Evaluation of the example: |
| Title:
Down on the Farm |
This title is extremely vague and does not
predict what will happen. What, specifically, will happen “down on
the farm?”
BETTER: “Public’s opinion of genetically modified crops will decline, creating marketing opportunities for traditional crops.” |
| The article's title is "Bucking Genetically Modified Trend, A Farmer
Prospers". The title says it all. This Iowa farmer is speculation
that the public's opinion of
GM crops will continue to decline, so he is growing and marketing "non GM" soybeans. This is fine and dandy but the way in which he is doing it is only fueling the fire! He is playing on the public's ignorance to line his pockets. The question is, is this the best approach for American farmers to take, or are we just shooting ourselves in the foot by undermining the publics trust in the safety of the crops we grow? This article makes the prediction that in the future the public will not accept GM crops, and therefore the farmer in question is simply making a money by being able to speculate as to the future fate of GM foods. |
Summary of the Prediction: This summary does not clearly state the prediction. Does it predict that the use of genetically modified crops will decline, or that farmers will raise prices on traditional crops, or both? At first glance, this does not appear to be a significant prediction, because there is no explanation that it could have a worldwide impact. It also does not appear to be a credible prediction, because it appears to be one person’s opinion (the farmer), supported by little evidence. Remember, a prediction is credible if it is highly likely to come true. The comments about the public’s ignorance and public trust in the food supply suggest a lack of confidence in the farmer’s predictions. Are these the student's opinions, or those of the article’s author? |
| Potential impacts: Indicate what would happen to the world if this prediction came true. For example, if the public does not accept genetically modified foods, and farmers profit, how will this affect the world? How will it affect food production and consumption worldwide? What role do American farmers play in world food production? What would be the worldwide impact for farmers and consumers if farmers could make money by successfully marketing non-genetically modified foods? | |
| Basis for the prediction: Indicate the methods used to make this prediction. Without this information, we cannot be confident that this prediction is well-founded. Is this one farmer’s opinion and course of action, or a worldwide trend? Again, the student's comments indicate that he or she is not confident that the prediction is likely to occur, or that the student does not agree with the farmer’s approach. | |
| www.msnbc.com/news/331281.asp | Reference: This is not a complete citation. The web address is not complete - it begins with http://. The reader should not have to go to the web site to find the author, title, and date. The student did not tell us anything about the author’s credentials. |
Mechanics:
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